Democracy and the Bell Curve

This is the bell curve:

https://www.statisticshowto.datasciencecentral.com/bell-curve/

It’s a statistical concept that says information about everything will create the shape of a bell curve if you can sample all of the population. Here, population is defined as whatever it is that you’re looking at. [Click the link above to read a more precise definition of a bell curve].

Let me give you an example. This is a rough spread of colours. It’s not accurate but bear with me:

Now, if you could ask every single person on earth which was their favourite colour, you’d end up with a smallish number of people at either end of the bell curve choosing black or white. Most people, however, would choose one of the colours in between those two extremes.

These are the people in the middle of that bell curve.

These are the people commonly referred to as the ‘silent majority’. These are the people who ultimately make or break the system of government we call democracy.

Of course, present day democracy isn’t ‘real’ democracy. It’s representational democracy, meaning we elect a tiny elite to do all the voting for a set period of time. We-the-people are lucky if our single vote has any influence on who is elected to vote for us. I

n case it isn’t completely obvious, I loathe representational democracy, and that’s despite living in a country that does it better than most. In Australia’s version, everyone of voting age has to vote, whether they want to or not. In theory at least, our votes can be expressed as a bell curve because the whole population is included in the result – i.e. some rabid right wingers on one side, some rabid left wingers on the other, and everybody else somewhere in the middle.

The net effect of having all those middies voting is that the power of the two extremes is diluted.

In countries that don’t have compulsory voting, the silent majority largely don’t vote. That means the two extremes are the ones who care enough to vote. And that means the power of the extremes is not moderated by ordinary, everyday voters with ordinary, everyday wants and needs.

I have understood the power of the bell curve for over 40 years. It is the reason I believe that representational democracy will, one day, be superseded by a more direct, more democratic voting system. In this barely imaginable future, ordinary people will be allowed to influence the direction of politics in a more meaningful way. Instead of only getting a say once every 4 years, they’ll have the option of voting directly on issues that concern them. Think social media or #auspol but with teeth. No more electing ambitious, professional bastards politicians to do our voting for us!

That’s the upside of direct voting, but there’s a downside as well, two in fact. People who don’t think direct voting is a good idea usually point to ‘populism’ as an example of how real majority rule can go horribly wrong. And they do have a point. While only the extremes get to have their say, direct rule of any sort can only lead to disaster.

But…we’re now smart enough to factor the ‘extremes’ into any direct voting system we devise. For example, let’s say we have a direct voting referendum on something emotional, like say a new flag. We could set up a system whereby a referendum would only pass [and hence become law] if a majority of at least 95% of the total population actually voted, one way or the other. This would ensure that direct voting faithfully reflected the wants and needs of the real majority.

Ah, but what about security, you say.

At the moment, security is the single biggest issue holding us back from direct voting, but I believe that blockchain technology, or something like it, will eventually make direct voting a viable and secure possibility.

I am still playing through all the issues in my head, but I honestly believe that one day, we will be like those ancient Athenians who first came up with the concept of democracy. It does feel weird though to think that it’s already been well over 2,000 years since democracy was first attempted.

Wouldn’t it be nice if we were the first to finally get it right?

Meeks

Democracy & compulsory voting

I’ve just stumbled across a brilliant article that details how and why Australia became one of the few democracies in the world to practise compulsory voting:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-01/compulsory-voting-federal-election-the-good-bits-of-politics/10825482

To be honest, I had absolutely no idea why we embraced compulsory voting, but I’ve long seen the value of it. Compulsory voting makes representational democracy more democratic. Why? Because the silent majority is forced to make a decision, and that decision dilutes the power of both extremes.

As a member of the silent ‘middle’, I think that’s a Very. Good. Thing. The whole point of democracies is that the majority decide important issues. But if only the far right and the far left care enough to get out there and vote, the winner is always going to be from one of the extremes. And that, ladies and gentlemen, means that ordinary people who just want to survive and get along don’t have a say.

Another thing, which is specifically referred to in that article, is that compulsory voting makes greater choice possible. Instead of only being able to vote for the two or possibly three major parties, compulsory voting gives independents and smaller parties a chance as well. If they get in, their votes have to be won…via compromise, and compromise dilutes the extremes again.

I hope the IPA never get their way and scrap compulsory voting. We do not need extremes. We do not need people to be so polarised that they hate each other. We need compromise and balance and more choices, not less.

Australia’s democracy may be young, but it works. No offence to either the US or the UK, but I wouldn’t want to live in either country at the moment.

cheers

Meeks

Indies Unlimited Flash Fiction – time to vote again. :)

Indies Unlimited has a great bunch of flash fiction stories for you to vote on this week – so please do! And no, you do NOT have to vote for mine, I never do so why should you? -grin-

http://www.indiesunlimited.com/2014/06/18/vote-for-the-next-flash-fiction-champ-2/

Just click on the link above to go to the voting page. If you haven’t read all the stories, there’s a link on the page that will take you to the stories themselves.

cheers

Meeks

Meeka Votes

http://vidkid20ssimlair.blogspot.com.au/

Like most Australians I am politics weary. I want it over with… but despite that, I still care.

1. I would like to punish Labor for backstabbing 1 AND 2. Those machinations revolt me, but

2. I believe Kevin07 deserves a chance to finish what he began. He, like Gough Whitlam, has a vision for the big things. Sadly that vision makes him a bad ‘politician’. But if the NBN, Kyoto and The Apology are all we get out of his two terms of office then that is still a damn good legacy.

3. I hate Tony Abbott. I hate his he-man wannabe posturing. To me that is just vanity, the kind of vanity that makes football stars believe they can do no wrong, especially to women. Not saying Abbott would ever rape anyone. Just saying his posturing appeals to a certain kind of attitude I hate. It may make him come across as an ‘every man’ kind of guy but he certainly doesn’t come across as the ‘every’ man this woman likes.

4. I hate the Greens too. They played politics with Climate Change, and much of what we have, or don’t have six years down the track is thanks to their stupidity and holier-than-thou posturing.

5. I hate the spin. I hate the spin so much I start to feel physically nauseous when I hear politicians start parroting whatever crap the spin doctors think will win hearts and minds. “We will send back the boats”. “We will buy up fishing boats.” Puleeze… Does anyone in Australia really believe the Indonesians are just going to roll over and accept this kind of bullshit?

6. I actually believe this period of hung parliament/independent influence has been a good thing – not in every detail, but as an exercise in co-operation. At best, every ruling party will have just over 50% of the first preference vote. No matter how you play with the numbers, that means an awful lot of people don’t agree with their policies. So forcing parties and independents to co-operate allows more of the voting public to get what they want. The standout exception to this was the Liberal Party. They voted against anything and everything, even the things they originally voted for.

7. I believe the role of government should be similar to a not-for-profit. The benefits from taxation should be plowed back into the country to create more wealth and well-being for people. Yet the stated aim of Liberal governments is to create a surplus while supporting business so business will support people. To me this is like putting money in the bank while allowing your kids to go barefoot in winter.

8. And last but not least, Julian Assange and Wikileaks are heroes of mine. The Big Brother mentality triggered by 9/11 is not that different to the anti-communist hysteria that swept the world during the McCarthy era in the US [1950’s]. Destroying people, and their rights, – because you fear some bogey man – is a cure far worse than the disease. Sadly that is what is happening now in this new century. I have to support the few madmen who say this is wrong.

For all those reasons I voted for Labor in the House of Representatives, and Wikileaks in the Senate.

Some people may agree with my reasons, but vehemently disagree with my choices. Others may agree with my choices, but for completely different reasons. Yet more may disagree with absolutely everything I’ve written.

That’s okay. Debate is the single most important benefit of a democracy. All I ask is that any debate that happens here on Meeka’s Mind be reasoned, and respectful of others. Please argue your point with as much passion as you want, but do not try to win that argument by putting others down. That’s just not on, and those kinds of comments will be deleted.

cheers

Meeks

Vote Wikileaks in September

This title may sound a bit tongue-in-cheek, but I assure you I am quite serious, and so apparently is Julian Assange.

According to the ABC news this evening, Wikileaks the political party will be on the ballot papers when Australia votes in September.

To be honest, I have no idea what kind of policies a Wikileaks Party would espouse, and I don’t care. As far as I’m concerned, an organ grinder’s monkey would be better than what we have at the moment, or are likely to have under Tony Abbott [and the Greens scare me]. Besides, Wikileaks will be lucky to win even one seat. Nonetheless,  I will vote for them because I don’t want to cast a donkey vote*, and until tonight, that seemed to be the only option open to me.

Now some of you may think voting for Wikileaks is just another way of casting a donkey vote. I beg to differ. A donkey vote sends no clear message. A vote for Wikileaks, however, would say ‘a pox on both your houses’ ** in bright blue neon.

And if, by some miracle, Julian Assange or one of the other Wikileaks candidates did get in, we could be sure of one thing – none of them would be singing out of the current political song book. I see that as a refreshing change.

Roll on September!

Meeks the Anarchist

* A donkey vote is essentially either a blank ballot, or a ballot with a mistake on it. For example, if I wrote ‘No!’ on a ballot instead of ticking one of the boxes, my vote would not count, and my protest would remain unseen.

** The original quote from Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet is most likely to have been ‘a plague a’ both [your] houses’ but I prefer the less kosher version.

An alpaca update and… a favour

I’ll start with two pictures of our alpacas minus their winter coats. And yes, I am trying to butter you up. 😦

They’re strange looking beasts without all that wool aren’t they? Like a cross between a giraffe and a deer.

This first photo is of one of the females with her cria, Andy.

Andy isn’t the sharpest tool in the box, but he is kind of sweet in a very dopey sort of way.

I don’t think Mamma was terribly impressed with her radical do but she did come up to the fence to say hello. Ah well, at least she’ll be cooler for what’s left of summer.

January is a bit late to be shearing alpacas, but unfortunately the one alpaca shearer in our area is in such demand that we couldn’t get him to do it any sooner.

The weather is meant to be hot again tomorrow so we got them done just in time.

And now for that favour I mentioned. -squirms in embarrassment- Um… if there are any Goodreads members out there, could you possibly vote for Vokhtah on these lists?

2013 Release books to read, and

Best Sci-fi of 2013

My undying gratitude to Lord David Prosser for doing what I didn’t have the guts to do.

-huge hugs-

Meeks