#Brexit first, then #Trump in the Whitehouse?

meeka shockedAs an Australian, I’m not that concerned with Brexit and the economic upheaval it may cause. It won’t have a huge impact here so selfishly, I can afford to sit back and just watch history in the making. As a student of human nature, however, I’m worried by the implications. You see, half the shock generated by Brexit seems to be because most people did not believe it could happen. And then it did.

Since the results of the referendum were made public, the one question on most lips is ‘why?’ and the answer seems to be ‘dissatisfaction’. But dissatisfaction with what, exactly?

I’m wading out into uncharted waters here, but my personal opinion is that Brexit was a kind of protest vote about conditions [in GB] in general and the perceived inadequacies of the EU in particular. I think the tsunami of Refugees has also given rise to a kind of low grade, xenophobia that is not restricted to Great Britain alone. But again, I think the underlying malaise is about dissatisfaction with life in the era of European Union. And when enough people become dissatisfied, leaders will always rise up offering both a scapegoat and a ‘way out’.

And so the unthinkable happened. Brexit happened. Now let’s take a quick flight over the Atlantic to the US.

Most people, myself included, still see Donald Trump as a buffoon who could not possibly win. But what if the malaise that led to Brexit is the same as the malaise gripping the US? What if Donald Trump has honed in on a level of dissatisfaction that is ready to explode like the US version of Brexit?

I still believe that Donald Trump as President is unthinkable, but post Brexit I’m no longer sure that it is. And that is a worry.

Meeks

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About acflory

I am the kind of person who always has to know why things are the way they are so my interests range from genetics and biology to politics and what makes people tick. For fun I play online mmorpgs, read, listen to a music, dance when I get the chance and landscape my rather large block. Work is writing. When a story I am working on is going well I'm on cloud nine. On bad days I go out and dig big holes... View all posts by acflory

29 responses to “#Brexit first, then #Trump in the Whitehouse?

  • Yvonne Hertzberger

    I agree, and as a Canadian that worry is much too close to home for comfort.

    Liked by 1 person

    • acflory

      Gah…much too close. It would be nice if Brexit acted as a wake up call to the voting public. Fingers crossed. :/

      Like

      • Yvonne Hertzberger

        I fear it may have the opposite effect. Those that support Trump believe far too much in their own superiority and the need for isolation.

        Liked by 1 person

        • acflory

          And of course the squeaky door is the one that gets the oil. This is one reason I like the Aussie system of having to vote. Even those who care the least about politics are forced to make a decision, which provides some kind of check on the most rabid voters. Without the silent majority standing up and making itself heard, I think the Trump supporters will carry the day, simply because they show up to vote. 😦

          Like

  • The Pink Agendist, née Mr. Merveilleux

    My theory is that this generalized dissatisfaction is closely linked to this new world of social media connectedness. No matter who we were we used to inhabit reasonably homogeneous communities. We lived on streets and in neighbourhoods where our neighbours’ homes were worth more or less the same as ours. We went to school with people who lived in more or less similar circumstances as ourselves. We bought clothes and food at the same shops.
    But now we’re connected like never before. People don’t ascribe value to themselves based on reasonable comparisons. They do so based on (often) fabricated ideas of what life could/might be like for other people. Super beautiful, super successful, super wealthy people. That leaves many with a deep sense of dissatisfaction and malaise. And the worse part is it’s totally artificial because all the evidence says life has never been better. We live longer, we suffer less from diseases, we have indoor bathrooms, we can actually make a phone call no matter where we are, we’re more comfortable than ever before.

    Liked by 1 person

    • acflory

      My first thought was that TV had already done that, but then I realised you were right – where you lived and who you lived with were still a greater determinant of expectations. Now half our lives are lived online in one way or another, maybe not via computers but certainly via smartphones. Not pretty. 😦

      Liked by 2 people

      • The Pink Agendist, née Mr. Merveilleux

        TV certainly started the process, but like the cinema it was “other”. There was no direct interaction, so no real life consequences or comparisons.
        I’ve become painfully aware of these things in the past few years as I attempt to live outside the bubble.

        Remember how much I used to complain about the mindset in Sotogrande? It turns out it wasn’t just there. People outside the bubble are trying just as hard to impress, to assert their place in social groups.

        Liked by 1 person

        • acflory

          Mmm…yes. 😦 I think you’ve nailed something about our digital world too Pinky. For a long time I couldn’t work out why people who could barely turn on a computer would suddenly become so adept and enthusiastic about smartphones. Now I think you’ve given me the answer: they have a chance to shine where they couldn’t shine before. They also have a chance to be absolute bastards in a way they can’t in real life, or at least not without consequences. It seems we taking the pecking order with us wherever we go. 😦

          Liked by 1 person

        • The Pink Agendist, née Mr. Merveilleux

          But now leave that simmering overnight and look at it in the morning when the liquid is all gone. Bastardisms, pecking orders- what’s behind it all? A primal desire to be accepted, wanted and loved which people don’t quite know how to achieve without misguided artifice.

          Like

        • acflory

          -grin- primal yes, but do they really want to be loved? Or is power and admiration enough?

          Like

  • Little

    Well said Meeka. I have to reblog this one can’t find option in phone will do from my laptop later.
    I fear what if Trump defeats the sane population / voters and walks in the white house. Not a good news. Doesn’t effect my country sure but does affects human nature . Isn’t America already struggling with guns and racial discrimination enough? to have him as a leader would be all hell breaking loose.

    Love Little….

    Liked by 1 person

  • Candy Korman

    Yes… we are entering uncharted territory! It’s a nightmare scenario for me. A week shy of a year ago, I was at an international Argentine Tango event in The Netherlands (I’m going back, flying on Friday!). With people from all over and very few from the U.S., I found myself in a conversation with a Scot. He asked me, “What would be so bad if Trump ran for president?”

    He and a twinkle in his eye, but I opted to give him a serious answer about how Trump would undermine the process and turn it into his brand of entertainment, while making it nearly impossible for other candidates to talk about policy. Back then I didn’t think Trump would last more than last summer. He’d burn out, but he didn’t. The Scottish Tango dancer thought Trump was a passing joke. He was even surprised that I gave him a serious answer.

    Flash forward to next week, when I’ll seek out some of the returning Brits to ask about Brexit and chat with the Euro Zone folks about it too. Is this a new nationalism at a time when “walling yourself off” is impossible? Is this the future?

    Liked by 1 person

    • acflory

      -sigh- I remember feeling that Trump was a joke too. Well, no one’s laughing now, that’s for sure. He’s tapped into something nasty that I’m sure most Americans don’t want to believe exists.
      I’m no psychologist, but I can’t help thinking that rampant nationalism is the result of individual dissatisfaction. After all, when life is going well, most sane people don’t think too much about politics. It’s only when life sucks that they start looking for answers. I’ve got such a bad feeling about this. :/

      Liked by 1 person

  • headwindjournal

    Good insights. Thank you! Hopefully enough people here in the United States will not buy into the fear and resulting racism, misogyny, xenophobia Trump helps generate. I think he will be defeated, but you are right, it is a worry. (I am American, but Canadian-born, with a Scottish father and relatives in England and Australia.)

    Liked by 1 person

    • acflory

      Welcome Headwind! I’ll call you an Aussie once removed. 😀
      I too hope that Trump will be defeated. I see him as a smart cookie playing the hatred game for all it’s worth…for his own self-aggrandisement. And he doesn’t even try to dispel that image of himself.
      I know all politicians have to be egotists to a point, but the Trump personality scares the hell out of me.

      Liked by 1 person

  • Hariod Brawn

    A good analysis, Meeks. Nonetheless, the comparison with Trump may not be valid. Here’s why: If Trump gets elected in November, then that’s it; he becomes the most powerful person in the world. On the other hand, Brexit (I do so loathe these naff neologisms) has not yet happened, and may not happen at all. How come? Cameron has cleverly handed the poison chalice of invoking Article 50 – the leave document for the EU – to his successor. Now, his successor is going to need a new mandate at a General Election. That means having a new manifesto, and such a manifesto could include an obligation to invoke Article 50 only when certain conditions are met in respect to a trade deal with the EU. The conditions would deliberately be impossible to meet, and therefore Brexit would never happen. This is what the British Govt. did under Labour with respect to ditching Sterling in favour of the Euro. Gordon Brown set key tests which had to be met, yet which were impossible to meet in actuality, not least of all due to their vagueness – i.e. movable goal posts. He therefore blocked joining the Euro without ever explicitly claiming to do so. It’s not a done deal.

    Like

    • acflory

      Ungh…I’m not sure which is worse, to be honest. If Brexit fizzles it may be good for Britain, but the months and years [?] of uncertaintly could just as easily send the global economy down the gurgler. In that sense, Brexit is already a done deal. Only the ultimate degree of destabilization is unknown. And meanwhile the dissatisfaction will continue to simmer. Whoever puts his/her hand up to be the sacrificial PM will have to be either incredibly altruistic, or an utter egotist.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Hariod Brawn

        Blame the markets. There are huge overreactions as always – trading algorithms. Crazies are buying paper gold.

        Like

        • acflory

          Yes, they’re anticipating collapse and thereby bringing it about. I guess the mindset is ‘get out before everything collapses’. Of course that lemming like behaviour completely misses the point that nothing has actually happened yet. -shrug- Madness.

          Liked by 1 person

        • Hariod Brawn

          Today’s response to their own overreaction yesterday:

          The FTSE 100 finished up 2.64% or 158.19 points at 6140.39
          Germany’s Dax added 1.93% to 9447.28
          France’s Cac closed 2.61% higher at 4088.85
          Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 3.3% to 15601.62
          Spain’s Ibex ended up 2.48% at 7835.0
          In Greece, the Athens market added 3.72% to 538.65

          On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 148 points or 0.87%.

          As for the pound, it is now up 0.9% at $1.3342 after climbing as high as $1.3418. Against the euro it is 0.68% higher at €1.2075.

          Like

        • acflory

          lmao – what goes down must come up! I just can’t help thinking how silly it all is. Silly and dangerous. Men in suits hit the panic button and trillions are wiped off global markets. Same me come back the next day and go…’oopsie’
          -face palm-

          Liked by 1 person

        • Hariod Brawn

          P.S. Article in the FT on why Brexit may never happen:

          https://t.co/yfgcG1o9YF

          [May hit a paywall – but try it anyway]

          Like

        • acflory

          Interesting article, Hariod. The only part that worried me was that it was posited on the idea that the moderate middle would somehow ignore the extremists and win ‘in the end’. Maybe I’m too much of a pessimist, but I see the moderate middle as mired in inertia. They have commonsense on their side but history is also full of examples where commonsense did not triumph – two world wars for a start. I hope I’m wrong.

          Liked by 1 person

  • littlemissobsessivesanatomy

    Reblogged this on Little miss obsessive's anatomy!! and commented:
    Sure, I’m not American and not the best person to debate politics with but I do feel Donald Trump could be bad news. This post, by super awesome Acflory aka Meeka, puts the words jumping inside my head in a better way…

    Liked by 1 person

  • annabellefranklinauthor

    Politicians are very good at whipping up human dissatisfaction and using it to fuel their own agendas. This whole Brexit fiasco was engineered by conservative politicians jockeying for position – sadly, too many people believed their lies. I’m getting horrific visions of Boris Johnson as UK prime minister and Trump as US president. I reckon they both came out of the same egg, on a planet where the inhabitants are all super-evil and have stupid yellow hair.
    Right now, I wish I was Australian!

    Like

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